Australia and the changing face of American soft power
Having upended the global trade system and the alliance network, Donald Trump’s less visible project may be his most consequential yet – to change how America appeals to the world. The implications for Australia will be significant and long-lasting.
In 1946 Senator J. William Fulbright came up with a novel idea of selling excess US Government military property and equipment that remained after the Second World War to fund international scholarships. The Fulbright Program was born. It would become the world’s largest and most successful educational exchange program and a crown jewel of American public diplomacy. Almost 80 years later, US President Donald Trump wanted to end it, along with a plethora of other American institutions of soft power – from USAid to Voice of America. Thankfully, with strong backing from Congress and advocacy by many Fulbright alumni and supporters, the Fulbright program has survived. But the first year of Trump’s second presidency left many of America’s friends asking: how will America want to be seen in the world today?
Having shocked the global trade system with tariffs and upended long-standing alliances with US partners and friends, Trump’s rewiring of American soft power may turn out to be his most consequential act yet. The after-effects for Australia might be more significant than we acknowledge. From picking up the pieces of humanitarian assistance in the Pacific to competing for hearts and minds in South-East Asia, Australia loses when America retreats. In the long run Australia’s influence – as a close ally of the US and an active defender of the Western rules-based order – may erode, especially in Asia.
Donald Trump’s dismantling of what he sees as outdated institutions of the US soft power, hostile to his policy agenda, has been rapid and systematic. First came the executive orders to shut down USAID – America’s humanitarian assistance agency – which Trump’s former advisor Elon Musk described as “a criminal organisation”. It was followed by the dismantling of The Voice of America, Radio Free Europe and Radio Free Asia – broadcasters that shared American perspectives on world affairs with global communities from Romania to Fiji. The government-affiliated think tanks – the US Institute of Peace and the Wilson Centre – were next on the chopping block.
But the first year of Trump’s second presidency left many of America’s friends asking: how will America want to be seen in the world today?
America has long been a magnet for the world’s best and brightest. When the Administration froze billions in federal funding for some of America’s best universities, it took aim at the very heart of America’s global influence – its world-class higher education system. If cutting funding for vital research was not damaging enough, the Government went on with harsh detentions and visa revocations of international students, sowing fear and confusion on American campuses and among scholars, students and university partners globally.
Trump’s restructuring of the State Department and cutting of its budget almost in half – eliminating humanitarian, climate, education and public diplomacy initiatives – intentionally made American diplomacy less inclusive and extensive. While every administration has the right to align its bureaucracy to its policy agenda, the US is risking a capitulation without a fight for global influence in the domains that remain central to Washington’s long-term strategic interests - from global climate solutions to public health. This retreat is a generous gift to America’s competitors and adversaries who have long sought to dilute American power.
Taken together, these cuts and closures may amount to a spectacular act of self-harm - undoing decades of building good will, partnerships, and American influence. While it is premature to assess the full impact of Trump’s policies, the early signs are worrying. Preliminary research shows that a complete withdrawal of US global public health funding could lead to millions of additional AIDS, TB and child deaths in the two decades ahead. America is also losing its popularity as a place to be. International visitor numbers to the United States dropped by an average 12-15% in March-February(shouldn’t it be other way?) of this year. Travel from Western Europe saw the largest decline in March – the highest on record aside from the COVID-19 pandemic. The exodus of academic talent from US institutions has thus far been limited – there is simply no easy replacement to the wealth and sophistication of the US research and innovation ecosystem, apart from China – which capitalised on the policy changes and political assaults on universities to attract some of America’s brightest science stars, many with heritage and family connections to China.
The good news is the damage is not yet permanent. The institutions – from Harvard to Voice of America – are fighting back. Many of the cuts and closures still need to pass through US Congress and the Senate – giving an opportunity for the US legislators to moderate the extremes of the current policies. There is a slight hope that Donald Trump’s advisors and the President himself will realise that American influence extends far beyond its military might, trade heft and financial markets. It exists in the hearts and minds of those who America helped to survive, who were educated on its campuses, and who listened to its radio stations searching for truth.
The recently released US National Security Strategy signals that the US is not done with projecting its soft power. It reaffirms that the US has “unmatched “soft power” and cultural influence.” However, it offers a stark new vision of America’s global self-image and vision, centred on self-interest and driven by the “America-first” philosophy. Its approach to global engagement will be “pragmatic without being “pragmatist,” realistic without being “realist,” principled without being “idealistic,” muscular without being “hawkish,” and restrained without being “dovish.” Importantly, the Strategy confirms that the seemingly erratic actions to dismantle America’s soft-power institutions in the first months of Trump’s presidency were not indeed erratic. They were a part of a consistent mission of the refocussing of American instruments of global influence squarely and unashamedly towards its own interests and needs, and withdrawing from the role of a global proponent – in-chief of Western liberal values.
There is a slight hope that Donald Trump’s advisors and the President himself will realise that American influence extends far beyond its military might, trade heft and financial markets.
There are however positive dimensions in Trump’s vision. His focus on peacemaking diplomacy is much needed in a world engulfed by the simultaneous devastating conflicts from Ukraine to Sudan. His focus on retaining America’s lead in global technology, financial and energy markets has all to do with hard-power projection, but the dominant US dollar, cutting-edge innovation and cheap energy are also powerful instruments of underlying cultural influence and global appeal. So, Trump is not withdrawing from the game of global influence - he is just changing the face America shows to the world.
For Australia, the impacts of Trump’s upheaval of American soft power will be far-reaching and deep. Firstly, the closure of USAID leaves a significant gap in the global humanitarian effort. The Australian Foreign Minister Penny Wong has already warned of the “irreversible” damage to South Pacific nations, resulting from the cancellation of the US Government’s humanitarian assistance programs for the region. Australia’s fierce strategic competition with China for influence in the Pacific will become much harder, as US aid programs and interest in the region continue to shrink.
Secondly, Australia will be poorer and less secure if America’s competitive edge over China in science and innovation decline over time. We made a bet on sustained US military, economic and technological superiority. In practical terms, we rely on US technology and our research ecosystems are interconnected. If Trump’s attacks on US universities and foreign scholars and students endure, the competitiveness of American higher education will erode further, to the benefit of its most formidable rival – China. As the US-China academic decoupling accelerates, Australia – an international education powerhouse, deeply reliant on Chinese student revenue and with deep research links with China – may be forced to choose between the US alliance loyalty and our commercial and scientific interests with China.
Thirdly, Australia is forced to lift its own game in soft power, and the Australian Government has recognised this challenge. Since being elected, Prime Minister Anthony Albanes and foreign minister Penny Wong doubled down on Australia’s soft-power diplomacy in the Pacific and South-East Asia – the two arenas of intense competition for power and influence with China, and the regions of lesser priority to Trump’s foreign policy. From ramping up people-to-people engagement in South-East Asia to the rugby diplomacy in PNG, Australia is working hard to fill the soft-power void left by the radically new American vision. We will have to do much more, if Trump’s reorientation of America’s soft and hard power endures beyond his presidency.
The Prime Minister’s 6-day visit to China in July this year was Australia’s own audacious attempt at bolder projection of Australia’s soft power, without compromising on our strategic and security redlines. Canberra’s three-face diplomacy with China – in which Australia simultaneously confronts, competes and cooperates with Beijing, has been given a new impetus by America’s more self-interested global posture.
Finally, America’s withdrawal from global liberal activism robs the world from its most powerful proponent of democracy and human rights – values Australia holds dear. However imperfect and inconsistent, American diplomacy has been a powerful competitor to authoritarianism and repression, including in our region. With its global image more transactional and inward-looking, America leaves a large void in the battle of governance systems and values – the void most likely to be filled by China and a cacophony of divisive political and cultural narratives in the West, amplified by social media and artificial intelligence.
America’s withdrawal from global liberal activism robs the world from its most powerful proponent of democracy and human rights – the values Australia holds dear.
America invented soft power. Its appeal to the world endured even through the darkest moments of wars, racism, and economic crises. The foundations of American influence have not been built overnight. It is a product of decades of hard work, leadership, and good institutions – universities, media, and civil society. They will not disappear in one presidential term. But they are rapidly changing, under pressure from the America-First philosophy, technological revolution and domestic socioeconomic tensions that made Trump the President in the first place. Trump is right in saying that any institutions need to evolve to fit with the times. Let’s hope that despite the upheaval of America’s global image and influence, the secret weapon of American power - its promise of hope for peace, freedom, and opportunity - endures. Let’s hope that after the dust of change settles we will still see an America that is committed to - in Senator Fulbright’s words: “…to bring a little more knowledge, a little more reason, and a little more compassion into world affairs and thereby increase the chance that nations will learn at last to live in peace and friendship”.
Philipp Ivanov is the Founder and CEO of GRASP (Geopolitical Risks and Strategy Practice), former Global Chief Programming Officer of Asia Society New York, and Fulbright scholar in Australian-American Alliance Studies at Georgetown University (2023).
Disclaimer: The views and opinions expressed in this paper are solely those of the author and do not reflect the official views or positions of any entities he advises and is affiliated with.
Image: Author’s.